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A Statistical Analysis of the Flow Changes of Kızılırmak River

Abstract
The purpose of this study was to examine the hydro-climatic trends of the Kızılırmak River which originates within the boundaries of our country and also reaches the sea within the same boundaries. Kızılırmak has its source in the Kızıldağ region of Sivas province and has a reddish color due to the red sandy-clayey residue from the tertiary period of the valley floor. The river travels a total of 1355 km and during this journey it collects the waters from an area of 76250 km2 leaving a fertile lowland in Bafra and reaches the Black Sea. Flow data from 4 flow measurement stations for the two fundamental climatic elements temperature and precipitation covering the Kızılırmak Watershed were analyzed for correlation, regression and trends. It was determined that, in general, a negative significant association of average degree existed between temperature and flow, while a positive significant association of average degree existed between precipitation and flow. It was discovered that the significance coefficients were higher at stations close to the flow source. According to trend analysis results, all stations selected inside the watershed area (6 meteorology stations) revealed an increase in long year temperature, while precipitation had decreased. According to linear trend analysis results for the future, it has been foreseen that the mentioned trends continue. The long year trend for Kızılırmak’s flow values (from 4 flow measurement stations) reveals a decrease in all tributaries and main river body. It has been concluded that there is a close statistical association between the mentioned decreasing trends and climatic emissions.

Keywords
Watercourse, Flow, Trend, Kızılırmak, Correlation Analysis.